{
  "schema": "AIONORA.PUBLIC_RESEARCH_CROSSCHECK/1",
  "review_date": "2026-10-22",
  "review_type": "EVENING_LATE_INDEPENDENT_MODEL_COMPARISON",
  "scope": "Existing morning CORE Doubler: Lech–Sunderland over 2.5 goals × Juventus–Rennes under 4.5 goals",
  "original_daily": "/daily-core-2026-10-22.html",
  "all_bets_placed": false,
  "original_aionora_raw": {
    "first_p": 0.7073041445899793,
    "second_p": 0.8515485328518946,
    "joint_independent_p": 0.6023,
    "reference_combined_price": 2.16,
    "certified": false,
    "source": "/daily.html"
  },
  "independent_research": {
    "first_market": "Lech vs Sunderland Over 2.5",
    "first_p": 0.53,
    "first_source": "https://soccerghost.com/match/23139/lech-poznan-vs-sunderland",
    "second_market": "Juventus vs Rennes Under 4.5",
    "second_p": 0.7659,
    "second_source": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/europa-league/juventus-vs-rennes_game_260896.html",
    "mixed_external_model_independence_product": 0.405927,
    "model_warning": "Not a calibrated joint probability; independent sites use different methods and snapshots"
  },
  "illustrative_threshold": {
    "reference_combined_price": 2.16,
    "break_even_p": 0.4629629629629629,
    "external_sensitivity_ev": -0.12319767999999998
  },
  "release_status": "NO_CERTIFIED_DOUBLER",
  "research_only": true,
  "live_executable_odds_verified": false,
  "prospective_calibration_verified": false,
  "notes": [
    "No edits to historical forecast or official Track Record.",
    "No claim that different independent providers jointly form a calibrated forecast.",
    "Odds are indicative and not current executable offers.",
    "Check exact kickoff and lineups; no betting instruction."
  ]
}