Today's evaluated football markets
Six football fixtures were computed with AIONORA's existing SHRUNK_POISSON_UNCALIBRATED_V1 research formula, replayed locally against genuine 2025/26 archived German and Italian league results. The top five below rank selected alternative markets by this historical model's projected probability. This is not a current 5.5.4 host-run or a calibrated prediction.
Hamburger SV – Eintracht Frankfurt
Over 1.5 goalsWhy this market: 3.70 expected total goals; historical league-strength features. Cup rotations are not modelled.
Research replay · AIONORA 4.26 · SH R U N K Poisson v1 · no executable price / current lineup passport · not an approved live BET
AS Roma – Cagliari
Roma to score 1+ goalWhy this market: 1.93 expected Roma goals; a team-scoring line differs from a win forecast.
Research replay · AIONORA 4.26 · SH R U N K Poisson v1 · no executable price / current lineup passport · not an approved live BET
Sassuolo – Lazio
Under 3.5 goalsWhy this market: 2.19 expected total goals from the archived team-strength inputs.
Research replay · AIONORA 4.26 · SH R U N K Poisson v1 · no executable price / current lineup passport · not an approved live BET
1. FC Köln – Union Berlin
Over 1.5 goalsWhy this market: 3.15 expected total goals; uncertainty is higher in a knockout match.
Research replay · AIONORA 4.26 · SH R U N K Poisson v1 · no executable price / current lineup passport · not an approved live BET
Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen
Over 1.5 goalsWhy this market: 3.09 expected total goals; selection could change with confirmed squads.
Research replay · AIONORA 4.26 · SH R U N K Poisson v1 · no executable price / current lineup passport · not an approved live BET
No market prices or independent correlation modelling were available to form a defensible CORE Doubler at combined odds 2.00 or above. Research is shown without manufacturing a quoted value edge.
Five research outcomes. Five favourable results.
| Archived 26 October research market | Final | Worksheet |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara–Benfica · Under 4.5 | 1–2 | WIN |
| FC Copenhagen–Odense · Under 4.5 | 1–1 | WIN |
| Beşiktaş–Başakşehir · Under 4.5 | 2–0 | WIN |
| Sevilla–Osasuna · Over 1.5 | 2–0 | WIN |
| PSG–Lyon · Under 4.5 | 2–0 | WIN |
Illustrative worksheet Log Loss: 0.2092. The previous research Doubler (Santa Clara U3.5 × Sevilla O1.5, quoted reference product 2.0306) also hit, but its recorded downside stress EV was negative. No executed stakes, independently timestamped closing prices or official settlement were evidenced.
PRO outcomes, separated from research evidence
26 October PRO Final Call: No authenticated private prematch PRO Final Call ledger was available for independent settlement. We do not attribute the public five-market CORE worksheet to a PRO Final Call or calculate invented PRO results.
Read the documented PRO Research Audit → · 25 October audit archive →
Future PRO Final Call audits will compare genuinely frozen morning versus later model decisions, the reason for changes and independently verified outcomes, but only when such original records exist.
Outcomes → hypotheses → prospective tests
Market line sensitivity
Sevilla–Osasuna finished 2–0: the archived Over 1.5 research market won, while the rejected Over 2.5 alternative lost. Next test: compare all frozen line alternatives over a larger distinct-event sample; no retrospective promotion.
False-negative review
Benfica, Beşiktaş and PSG straight wins succeeded after being excluded from the prior worksheet. This is not proof that their rejection was wrong on value. Next test: store original opposing-market prices and probability passports before kick-off.
Calibration discipline
Five successes are insufficient to retune the champion model. Next test: chronologically frozen, independently settled events with calibration, Brier and Log Loss against a simple benchmark.
Autonomous record lifecycle
The scoped 5.5.3 football data/freeze component exists, but the public complete historical sync has not been authenticated. Next test: new immutable prematch forecasts, independent result verification, settlement receipt and SHA-256 readback.
Changes today: No model coefficients changed; no outcome-driven retroactive forecast edits; no verified CLV or profit claim. The learning cases are research hypotheses pending prospective evidence.
Scheduled events, model evidence pending
EuroLeague and ATP/WTA event monitoring remains part of the daily coverage. For example, Panathinaikos–Olimpia Milano is scheduled for 21:15 Athens in today's EuroLeague programme. No independently executable AIONORA basketball or tennis market probability with current validated inputs was available for this edition; match listings must not be presented as model-selected bets.
Where the model does not have enough evidence
PRO Final Call settlement: excluded from performance metrics without an authentic original prematch freeze.
Panathinaikos–Olimpia Milano totals: no validated AIONORA pace/rotation/price bundle.
ATP/WTA match-winner markets: no independently verified active AIONORA surface/player-status model run.
CORE Doubler: no confirmed executable prices or value/correlation passport to support a 2.00+ combination.
Transparent research, measured progress
The six football probabilities are derived from the existing archived AIONORA research formula. The 27 October local replay and the earlier dated outcome worksheets are distinct from the protected AIONORA 5.5.4 backend and from its certified betting Track Record. The original model comparison file carries source/input hashes, but no authenticated backend readback or officially published forecast freeze. Publication of this informational page does not activate backend certification or alter the historical record.
Sources: DFB fixture schedule · Serie A schedule · PRO Research Audit · Historical Full Audit.
AIONORA forecasts are based on the information available when evaluated. We reassess them closer to each event's start as team news, player availability, lineups and market conditions evolve. Probabilities and selections may change. Forecasts are not guarantees.