8/10Worksheet wins
−2.3%Hypothetical ROI*
0Certified bets
Evidence boundary: *The worksheet's ten reference odds were not verified as executable before kickoff, and there is no independently verified immutable pre-match forecast freeze. The 8/10 result and −0.23u are illustrative, not official ROI or proof of model calibration.
All ten research outcomes
| # | Match / market | Final* | Ref.* | Worksheet | 1u* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Club Brugge – LensOver 1.5 goals | 3–0 | 1.16 | WIN | +0.16 |
| 02 | Real Betis – FeyenoordDouble chance 1X | 1–0 | 1.21 | WIN | +0.21 |
| 03 | Bayern – ArsenalOver 1.5 goals | 2–2 | 1.21 | WIN | +0.21 |
| 04 | Sporting CP – LASKSporting win | 2–3 | 1.22 | LOSS | -1.00 |
| 05 | Inter – ShakhtarInter win | 1–0 | 1.23 | WIN | +0.23 |
| 06 | Como – Man UnitedOver 1.5 goals | 4–1 | 1.22 | WIN | +0.22 |
| 07 | Real Madrid – LeipzigOver 2.5 goals | 4–1 | 1.24 | WIN | +0.24 |
| 08 | Bosna – BahçeşehirBahçeşehir win | 86–77 | 1.20 | LOSS | -1.00 |
| 09 | Lille – GalatasarayOver 1.5 goals | 2–4 | 1.24 | WIN | +0.24 |
| 10 | Aston Villa – VikingVilla win | 3–1 | 1.26 | WIN | +0.26 |
What the model should test
Goal totals 5/5, straight wins 2/4, double chance 1/1. Sporting and Bahçeşehir lost; their opponent strength, lineup/rotation assumptions and alternative markets need review. Ten research outcomes are too few to justify model reweighting.
*Results transcribed from AIONORA Daily CORE published 22 October; source-referenced there, but per-row official independent settlement and pre-event freezing are not established. No CLV, official Brier/Log Loss or actual betting profit.